WHICH STARTING PITCHER WILL THE RED SOX TRADE ?

JAKE PEAVY

BILL LANNO
THE RED SOCKS BLOG
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

Unlike a majority of teams,one concern the Red Sox do not have this offseason is starting pitching. The team has a surplus.

And so it is obvious to Red Sox fans, that if a trade is made by Ben Cherington you can bet a starting pitcher will be involved.And as the offseason moves on it is becoming more apparent a trade will have to be made.

The Red Sox have serious concerns at catcher and first base. Also the left side of the infield could use a little backup.

Ben Cherington earlier this week expressed his opinion thus, "We've had a number of conversations and I think it's no secret, one area we have a little bit of depth in is the rotation. That's a area other teams are sorting out, working through free agent options. Some of the free agents are starting to land, so I think that's probably to become more clear for other teams, too. We'll see what that means for us. I don't know yet really what it means, other than we've had a lot of conversations. We know we'll have to be compelled to do anything there because obviously a supposed surplus can turn into not one pretty quickly, so we want to be careful, not do something in the name of doing it, since there's downside to doing that. We'll see. We've had a lot of conversations."

The Red Sox now have six experienced starting pitchers. It is unrealistic to proceed into 2014 with that many. Felix Doubront could work out of the bullpen as he did last year but that would limit his total innings pitched by the end of the year. I don't think the Red Sox want to do that. 

More importantly, if you fast forward to three years down the road, the Red Sox rotation will change over completely. At the end of next season Jon Lester and Ryan Dempster will be eligible for free agency. At the end of 2015 John Lackey and Jake Peavy will also become free agents.

The Red Sox have a fine core of pitching in the minors. Pitching that will need to be integrated into the big leagues in the next few seasons. Pitchers like Brandon Workman, Allan Webster and Anthony Ranaudo.

So who are you having conversations about Ben ? Who's interesting other teams ?

It's hard to imagine the Red Sox trading Jon Lester. He is the staff 'Ace' and had a 15-8 record last year. Of concern next season is his contract. Will the Red Sox try to re-sign him ? In any case he isn't going anywhere. 

Ditto for John Lackey. His return last year after being in the 'chicken & ribs doghouse' was amazing. But Lackey is also viewed as a leader in the clubhouse because he works hard and mentors the young pitchers. He is respected by the older players and the rookies. He's highly unlikely to get traded because of the vesting option the Red Sox have on him for 2015 will see him paid the league-minimum that year. With the price of starting pitching on the rise the savings the Red Sox make on a starter for 2015 could be used to lock up some contracts for our young pitchers in preparation for 2016.

Clay Buchholz is another starter who will not be traded. His contract is under Red Sox control until the 2017 season. Clay will be around as long as he can stay healthy. 

That leaves Jake Peavy or Ryan Dempster.

Dempster has a year remaining on his contract. He turns 37 this year and if a trade were made, the other team may ask the Red Sox to assume some of this obligation if they were to get anything of value in return. In other words, Dempster may not be worth much on the trade market.

So that leaves Jake Peavy. To me he is the pitcher where the Red Sox will get the most in value back. He is younger than Dempster at 32 and with a $ 14.5 AAV over the last two years would have high value. 

Only Ben Cherington knows who's been calling. He also knows who their talking about.

One thing is sure. A starting pitcher will be moved.
Who, when, to whom ~ Only Ben knows.