NAPOLI MUST DECIDE !

MIKE NAPOLI

BILL LANNO
THE RED SOCKS BLOG
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

It was one year ago today that the Red Sox signed Mike Napoli to a three year contract, worth $ 39 million.

At the time it was thought the Red Sox had taken care of first base for the next three years. What a difference a year makes.

When Napoli took his physical with the Red Sox it was discovered he had a degenerative hip condition called 'Avascular necrosis' or AVN. After two months the Red Sox reduced their offer to 1 year at $ 5 million, plus a additional $ 8 million of incentives that had to do with how well his hip held up.

Had Napoli passed his physical last year, the Red Sox would now owe him 2 years and $ 26 million. Napoli will now get considerably more than that. What a difference a year makes.

Mike Napoli's hip passed all the tests it was given in 2013. Mike played in 139 games. He hit .259 with a .360 OBP and had 23 home runs. He had never played first base before, but by the end of the season he was a 'Gold Glove' caliber player at the position.

These attributes have caused his 'free agent' value to go through the roof, although there are drawbacks. Napoli strikes out a lot. 32.4% of the time to be exact. A team that signs him will have to give up a first round draft pick and of coarse there are still concerns about his hip.

We cannot know what conversations Napoli has had with other teams nor what the Red Sox have offered him, but one thing is sure.
Mike Napoli will have to make his mind up sooner rather than later.
Until he gives the Red Sox his decision, Ben Cherington cannot plan his offseason. And Ben's offseason action is going to begin next week at the winter meetings.

Waiting in the wings are Mike Carp and Daniel Nava two very nice fellows, who are not going to be the Red Sox everyday first baseman. He will have to be found by trade or a 'free agent' signing. The time for such a important piece of the 2014 Red Sox's puzzle is now at the winter meetings.

The Red Sox have only a short window of time to replace Napoli should he not return. Unlike the other positions where the Red Sox stand to lose 'free agents', the problem at first base is not as cut and dry as replacing a Ellsbury with a Bradley Jr. 

Ben Cherington needs time to assess what's being offered from James Loney to Mark Trumbo. What about a Kevin Youkilis return at first base ?

I suspect the Red Sox will wait until the winter meetings begin before deciding on their plan of action for first base. But the news last night that Jacoby Ellsbury is close to signing puts a added urgency in Napoli's decision. Ellsbury's signing will probably open a flood gate of  'free agent' signings.

But once December 9th rolls around, all bets on Napoli returning to Boston are off !