OPENING DAY : The Opposition

RED SOX : OPENING DAY 2014
March 31,2014.

AMERICAN LEAGUE SCOUTING REPORTS






So another 'Opening Day' has arrived.

Here are the scouting reports for the 15 teams in the American League ~ In the order of their pre-season ranking.


1. TAMPA BAY RAYS

The Case For :
The Rays have averaged more than 91 wins over the last six seasons and reached the Division Series in three of the last four. Last year, they boasted two of the top three rookies in the American League in rightfielder Wil Myers and starter Chris Archer, both of whom stand to play full seasons in 2014 and can be expected to improve over their solid first-year showings. The team could also get greater contributions elsewhere in their heralded rotation, as David Price, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb all spent time on the disabled list last year. Price in particular was far better over the season’s final three months (2.53 ERA with 13 quality starts in 18 turns) than in the first three (5.24 ERA, five quality starts in nine turns plus a month and a half on the DL), which bodes well for a possible return to his Cy Young form of two years ago. The team also stands to benefit significantly from the addition of Ryan Hanigan, an underrated catcher who excels at all aspects of receiving and had a .370 career on-base percentage before a lousy 2013 season marred by a .213 batting average on balls in play.

The Case Against :
The potential gains of Myers and Hanigan should be offset somewhat by regression from first baseman James Loney, whom the team overspent to retain. The lineup thus remains rather pedestrian despite the dynamic presence of Evan Longoria and Myers at the heart of the order. Tampa’s starting pitching depth is already being tested with Jeremy Hellickson starting the year on the disabled list following January surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow. Moore’s control is becoming a significant concern. His walk rate increased in each of the last two seasons, topping out at 4.5 per nine innings last year, a season in which he also led the majors with 17 wild pitches despite throwing just 150 1/3 innings, and this spring, he has walked 11 men in 10 1/3 innings.

X-Factor: Team defense
The Rays have been among the top three teams in the majors in park-adjusted defensive efficiency (the rate of turning balls in play into outs) in five of the last six seasons. Four of those five seasons have resulted in playoff berths, and in the one season they didn’t rank in the top three in PADE, they had their worst season of that stretch, winning just 84 games (the only one of the six seasons in which they failed to win 90) and missing the postseason. Last year, they finished behind only the A’s and Reds, and they are returning largely the same defense this year, albeit with more David DeJesus and Myers in place of Kelly Johnson, Sam Fuld and likely much of Matt Joyce’s time in the field, and the upgrade of Hanigan over Jose Lobaton behind the plate.

Number To Know: 1
That’s the number of teams that have averaged more wins than the Rays’ 91.7 over the last six years. That one team, the Yankees, who have averaged 94 wins, are the only other to have averaged 90 or more wins a year over that span.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Desmond Jennings
“He’s always gonna be a question mark. He’s not a leadoff hitter, but you live with him if you don’t have a whole lot else. When pitchers throw a lot of breaking stuff at him, it slows his bat down, he doesn’t go deep in the count and have a quality at-bat.”

Most underrated: Yunel Escobar
“I think he has grown up and is gonna have a huge year. When I saw him the other day, he was on every pitch and wasn’t missing the fastball. And I think he’s one of the better defenders in the American League. I wouldn’t put him at the top, but he’s pretty good.”

2. OAKLAND ATHLETICS


The Case For :
The A’s are the two-time defending AL West champions in large measure because of the deep rosters Billy Beane has given to his manager, Bob Melvin. This year’s is no different, and they’ve already had to tap into it, as Jarrod Parker – who was to be the Opening Day starter, and who last year had a stretch of 19 straight starts without a defeat – was lost in spring training to a second Tommy John surgery. On top of that, A.J. Griffin, another young rotational stalwart, was shut down with elbow tendonitis. Even so, the A’s are built to withstand such unfortunate events in a way that most teams, whose dreams are broken along with the arms of their key pitchers, are not. For example, Tommy Milone, who started 59 games the past two seasons but might have begun the season in the minors were everyone healthy, will simply now step back into the rotation.

The Case Against :
The A’s are better protected against injuries that most of their competitors, particularly as far as their pitching, but their offense is by necessity composed of players who are prone to inconsistency. As a scout recently pointed out, a few years ago, Josh Donaldson was a back-up Triple-A catcher, and last season, his WAR was second in the AL to only Mike Trout. Jed Lowrie had never before stayed healthy enough to play in even 100 games, but last year, he played in 154 of them and led AL shortstops in OPS. Yes, the 2013 A’s sustained a few disappointing performances, as Yoenis Cespedes appeared to regress as a sophomore and Josh Reddick’s home run total plummeted from 32 to 12, but still they ranked third in the league in runs scored. The point is that, in order to contend at its payroll, the club has to pursue high variance strategies as far as the players it acquires, stocking its lineup with hitters with upside but who were not sought after by others because they are risky in a variety of ways (past performance, age, injury history). That risk has worked out for the past two years, and is mitigated somewhat by the club’s depth, but all it would take is a few more coinciding negative outcomes (Donaldson proves a one-year wonder, Cespedes doesn’t bounce back) for the whole thing to collapse.

X-Factor: Addison Russell
A strained hamstring ended Russell’s spring after 12 games – the A’s assigned him to minor league camp on March 16, to rehab – but the 20-year-old’s days in the minors will likely end at some point this season. The game’s No. 14 prospect, according to Baseball America, has an advanced all-around skill set (in 110 games last season, he had 46 extra-base hits and 21 steals), and he could be called upon to give the A’s a boost similar to the one Manny Machado provided the Orioles two years ago. Lowrie could shift to second to make room for Russell, moving Alberto Callaspo to the bench.

Number To Know: Five
Even though last year’s closer, Grant Balfour, is now in Tampa Bay, Melvin might have five legitimate closer candidates at his disposal by mid-season. Jim Johnson, an All-Star with the Orioles in 2012, will begin the season with the job, but behind him will be Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle, Luke Gregerson and eventually, assuming a timely recovery from Tommy John surgery, free agent signing Eric O’Flaherty. Oakland’s bullpen might be unmatched as far as talent, and it is also well constructed, as Doolittle and O’Flaherty are both lefties who have the stuff to get right-handed batters out (they hit .227 against Doolittle last season, and .209 against Flaherty). Consider it another reason why injuries to Oakland’s starters won’t be as damaging as they might for most other clubs.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Josh Reddick
“Super defender, ran into 32 homers in 2012. He did have a wrist problem last year, so you have to give him a mulligan, but you expect to see the real Josh Reddick this year. The real Josh Reddick for me is probably .250, 18 to 20 home runs, 70 RBI. Nobody knew him two years ago, nobody knew how to attack his strengths. He wasn’t a household name. Last year, they carved him up pretty well. He has a one-way swing. Everything is a long swing, he pulls everything. Last year, he didn’t have the flexibility in his wrist to manipulate the ball around the field, but I still don’t love his swing. He’s got an uppercut, which is not that odd for a left-handed hitter, but his is really turn and burn – guess and go. You’re going to need to see him drive the ball the other way, show the will and the ability to hit the ball the other way, if he’s going to be a star. To get him out, you can throw him something soft he can pull way foul, and then pitch him away.”

Most underrated: Jed Lowrie
“Last year, he played every day. That was the thing that was the knock on him, that he couldn’t stay on the field. Last year, he stayed on the field and nearly led the AL in doubles. He was probably the best pure hitter on that team. It’s not far-fetched for them to hit third this year. In spring training, Melvin’s been using both Donaldson and Lowrie in the three hole, rotating them between two and three. He can hit with two strikes, works the middle of the field. He’s never late, he doesn’t seem to be guessing and he’s in control of the batter’s box.”

3. BOSTON RED SOX

The Case For :
The Red Sox are the defending world champions and tied World Series opponent St. Louis for the most wins the regular season in 2013. They did that despite getting just 16 starts from Clay Buchholz, season-ending injuries to two closers, and disappointing seasons from starter Ryan Dempster (who is now quasi-retired) and third baseman Will Middlebrooks.

The Case Against :
The loss of Jacoby Ellsbury to free agency cost the Red Sox one of their most valuable players from a year ago, one worth nearly six wins above replacement according to Baseball-Reference’s formula. The team now has significant question marks at three positions. In centerfield, they will attempt to replace Ellsbury with some combination of rookie Jackie Bradley Jr., who hit .189/.280/.337 in limited exposure last year and has put up a similar line this spring, and former All-Star Grady Sizemore, who hasn’t played since 2011 due to injury. At third base, they are sticking with the 25-year-old Middlebrooks, hoping to get more than the .227/.271/.425 line he contributed last year. And at shortstop, they are going with another rookie, albeit a very highly regarded one, in top prospect Xander Bogaerts. Despite having those young players in prominent roles, and shedding the soon-to-be-37-year-old Dempster, Boston has some age issues. By replacing free agent Jarrod Saltalamacchia with A.J. Pierzynski, they got nine years older at catcher. World Series MVP David Ortiz is now 38, and closer Koji Uehara will turn 39 during the season’s opening series.

X-Factor: Stephen Drew
Boston’s championship shortstop remains unsigned, and with Drew having rejected the Red Sox’s qualifying offer, they are the only team that can sign him without forfeiting a draft pick. Injury and poor performance could expand the market for Drew as the season begins, as has already happened with the injury to Tigers shortstop (and former Red Sock) Jose Iglesias, but a return to Boston is not out of the question for Drew, and would improve the Sox’s outlook on the left side of the infield.

Number to Know: 13
That’s how many World Series have been played since the last time a champion repeated, that being the 2000 Yankees.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Jackie Bradley
“I hate to throw it on a kid, but I think they may have overvalued him as the next coming. They were hoping that he was a lock to walk in and be everything that Jacoby Ellsbury was, and I don’t think he is. He’s got some ability, but replacing Ellsbury is a lot of pressure.”

Most underrated: Daniel Nava
“He’s a sound hitter who’s tough to get out. You put him at the fourth outfielder, and the next thing you know, when he’s not in the lineup, you’re saying, ‘We need another guy.’ Then you put him in and realize he’s pretty damn good. He should get the lion’s share of playing time in leftfield because I don’t think Jonny Gomes is as good from the right side, except for the power.”

4. DETROIT TIGERS

The Case For :
Prince Fielder, Jhonny Peralta, Omar Infante, Doug Fister and Joaquin Benoit are all gone, but there’s an argument to be made that the 2014 Tigers are better—more dynamic and more versatile—as they go after a fourth straight division crown. The defense, a longtime vulnerability in Detroit, will improve with Miguel Cabrera moving to first, Nick Castellanos at third, and Ian Kinsler manning second. The Tigers will be more potent on the bases—after stealing a major league-low 35 bases in 2013, the Tigers will be running more with the greenlight from new manager Brad Ausmus and guys like Kinsler and Rajai Davis now on the roster. The team that has reached the ALCS the last two years still has the mightiest rotation in the league. The Tigers have an opportunity to open up a Secretariat-like lead early: just 14 of their first 36 games are against teams who were above .500 last year. But if the Tigers look like they’re in trouble come July, you can count on Dave Dombrowski to make a deal.

The Case Against :
The mighty Tigers offense won’t be as good without Fielder, and if Castellanos flops in his first full season, and Kinsler’s power continues to evaporate, Detroit could suddenly struggle to score runs. The pitching is also not without its own questions. Was last year the start of a decline for Justin Verlander? Will injury-prone Anibal Sanchez stay healthy? There are still questions about Rick Porcello (was his excellent second half a mirage?), and Drew Smyly may not be as good as Doug Fister. New closer Joe Nathan is a six-time All-Star, but he’s also 39 years old. With the rise of the Indians and Royals in a suddenly competitive AL Central, the Tigers, unlike past years, can’t afford to stumble through the early weeks and months of the season.

X-Factor: Brad Ausmus
Another manager with no managerial experience takes over for a legend. The longtime catcher wants this year’s Tigers to be more aggressive on the basepaths and wants a team that canwin in different ways. He’ll have more lineup flexibility than Jim Leyland, but he also won’t have Fielder.

Number To Know: 20-26
That was Detroit’s record in one-run games last year. The Tigers hope that this more dynamic and versatile lineup will be better at manufacturing runs and winning the close games.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Nick Castellanos
“Nick Castellanos’ bat is ahead of his glove because he hasn’t played third base in a year and a half. The speed of the ball coming off the bat is different than in the minors.”

Most underrated: Drew Smyly
“He was too good to be a reliever, really an underused guy for them the last few years. I think he’ll thrive in the rotation. He’s gained some weight and looks stronger and his fastball’s got a little more to it. I like his upside—I think he’ll be better than Porcello this year.”


5. TEXAS RANGERS

The Case For :
In the Rangers, Shin-Soo Choo saw not only a club that was willing to offer him a seven-year, $130 million free agent deal, but also a winner that plays in a city with a large Korean population. “L.A., New York, they’re nice cities, but they have too many people, a lot of traffic,” he said. “The Texas Rangers, I think, are a perfect fit for my baseball career, my future and my family.” If the Rangers are a perfect fit for Choo, Choo is a perfect fit for them, as he is an on-base machine who will spark the offense from the top of the order (Choo’s OBP last year, .423, was 87 points better than that of Texas’ combined leadoff hitters). By also trading for Prince Fielder, the Rangers fixed an offense that uncharacteristically sputtered last season (their 4.5 runs per game were the fewest since 1995) in two fell swoops.

The Case Against :
Yu Darvish will likely be terrific – he’s the Cy Young favorite – but the rotation behind him is disturbingly thin. Matt Harrison’s back issues and Derek Holland’s torn knee cartilage, suffered while he was playing with his dog, have them out indefinitely. That means a lot of innings for the likes of Joe Saunders, converted relievers Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross, and whoever else the Rangers can pick up off the scrap heap. Former playoff hero Colby Lewis is healthy for the first time since July of 2012, but a spring ERA of 18.00 suggests he won’t be a savior any time soon. The Rangers could revert to their form of the early 2000s, in which they annually crushed the ball but couldn’t throw it, and usually finished well out of the playoff picture.
X-Factor: Prospects
Jon Daniels has proven himself one of the league’s least reluctant general managers as far as trading his top prospects for immediate help. In 2010, he traded a package including Justin Smoak to the Mariners for Cliff Lee, and last summer, he sent Mike Olt to the Cubs for Matt Garza. The Rangers’ farm remains fecund – middle infielders Rougned Odor and Luis Sardinas, catcher Jorge Alfaro and slugging third baseman Joey Gallo are all highly regarded – and Daniels could move a couple of them for a much-needed No. 2 starter to slot in behind Darvish.

Number To Know: 69
Without Josh Hamilton, that’s how many home runs left-handed Rangers hit in 2013, ranking them tenth in the American League. Although the owners of 30 of those bombs (A.J. Pierzynski, David Murphy and Lance Berkman) are now gone, this year’s club is better designed to exploit the inviting rightfield porch at Globe Life Park. Fielder alone could reach 70 percent of last year’s team total, and he and Choo could combine to surpass it by themselves. The Rays’ David Price and the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija are potential targets, but a return of Lee might make the most sense, if he waives his no-trade clause.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Neftali Feliz
“Here’s a guy who was very good as a closer, they try to make him into a starter and he blows his arm out. Before he even gets back into the form he had, they anointed him the closer again. This is a guy who was getting it done at 96, 97, 98, without the secondary stuff. Right now, he’s sitting at 92 to 93, with marginal secondary stuff at best. They don’t know why his velocity is down. A lot of guys come back from Tommy John surgery better, but some guys don’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if Joakim Soria turns out to be their closer.”

Most underrated: Michael Choice
“I feel that he’s a guy who is going to have legitimate corner power. He has finally been moved out of centerfield, where the A’s drafted him in the first round out of Texas-Arlington in 2010. He really wasn’t that kind of guy. He’s got some of the best bat speed of any player coming up. I don’t think the A’s will be as sorry they traded him as much as they are [with] Carlos Gonzalez, but they’ll probably regret dealing him to Texas for Craig Gentry last December. He’s a young kid. He’ll put up numbers. He’s not one of those Chris Carter kinds of guys, striking out all the time, but he’s strong. He’s swole up.”


6. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The Case For :
The Royals’ second-half surge—they finished with their best record since 1989—was no fluke. Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez are ready to take the next step, and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, off subpar seasons, will rebound. Mike Moustakas has been raking this spring, and looks like he could have that breakout season (finally), and the Royals have finally have a dynamic leadoff hitter in Norichika Aoki, an ideal tablesetter for Ned Yost’s lineup. The defense and the bullpen (which posted an AL-best 2.55 ERA last year), anchored by the league’s best closer, Greg Holland, will be excellent again. James Shields, in in the final year of his contract, could be a Cy Young contender. For all those reasons, the Royals’ playoff drought—they haven’t made the October dance since ’85—will end this year.

The Case Against :
New acquisition Jason Vargas doesn’t have the upside of Ervin Santana. The Royals’ hitters remain terribly impatient at the plate—last in the league in walks in 2012, second-to-last in 2013—and still don’t have enough pop in the lineup. It’s time to stop waiting for Moustakas to break out, and accept he’ll never be the All-Star everyone expected him to be. Danny Duffy isn’t quite ready to be an impact starter, and Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie round out the rotation. For those reasons, the drought and the heartbreak will continue.

X-Factor: Yordano Ventura
Of all the young arms in Kansas City, Ventura, who hit 101 mph in his debut last September, has the chance to be an elite starter in the rotation. Can he be that guy this year?

Number To Know: Five
The Royals have burned through five hitting coaches since 2012, but problems on offense persist nonetheless. Kansas City ranked last in home runs with 112; the next closest team was the Yankees, with 144.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Mike Moustakas
“Mike Moustakas, from all the hype that he’s got. He gets in funks where it’s hard to say what the heck’s wrong. He doesn’t seem to be able to make adjustments.”

Most underrated: Kyle Zimmer
“Don’t sleep on Kyle Zimmer—he’s underrated as one of the best young phenoms in the game. I think he could make an impact this season. He’s got elite stuff, and in a few years, he’s their ace. He’ll be on an innings cap and they’ll need to pace his innings, but if they’re in the hunt in September—and I think they will be—he could be an X-factor for them.”


7. NEW YORK YANKEES

The Case For :
The Yankees won 85 games last year and over the offseason added Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Masahiro Tanaka. They are also getting Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira back from injury and will get a full season from Alfonso Soriano. Michael Pineda has looked great this spring and will be the team’s fifth starter, and there’s hope that CC Sabathia can rebound from a season in which he posted the only below-average ERA+ of his career.

The Case Against :
The Yankees also lost Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte this winter. Their infield is a potential disaster, with the oft-injured Brian Roberts at second base, Kelly Johnson something of an after-thought replacement for Alex Rodriguez at third base, and Jeter and Teixeira, who combined for just 32 games last year, both shells of their former selves with significant chance of re-injury given that both suffered reoccurrences of their key injuries last year. Jeter, who has already said he will retire after this season, will be 40 in June. Hiroki Kuroda is 39. Soriano is 38. Beltran will be 37 in April. Roberts is 36. Teixeira will be 34 in April. Sabathia, who will be 34 in July, has been throwing in the upper 80s in camp. Ellsbury and leftfielder Brett Gardner are often injured themselves, with Ellsbury averaging 96 games a year over the last four seasons, and Gardner having missed most of the 2012 season. An injury in the outfield would greatly increase the playing time of 40-year-old Ichiro Suzuki, who looks every bit his age at the plate. Pineda hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since 2011 due to a major shoulder injury. Ivan Nova has been erratic in his young career and has never made 30 starts in a season. The bullpen is understaffed, and David Robertson is unproven as a closer.

X-Factor: Attrition
Heading into Opening Day, the Yankees look dramatically improved with a roster packed full of big names and former All-Stars, but it is a long season, and that roster is filled with players in the latter stages of long careers or coming off significant injuries and time missed. The Yankees could very well be one of the best teams in baseball in May, once all of those old bodies get warmed up, but the chances of the majority of their roster remaining healthy and productive over the entire six-month season seem slim.

Number To Know: 72-90
That was the Yankees’ third-order record last year, a full 13 wins worse than their actual record, and is the baseline from which the team’s improvements this winter should be measured.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Mark Teixeira
“Mark Teixeira is still dangerous, and he’s going to hit some home runs, but he’s just not the feared hitter for the money they signed him for. I think his bat has slowed some. In the past, he was more dangerous from the left-hand side, and he was a better hitter from the left-hand side, and I think I’ve seen a decline in the hitability and the bat speed from the left-hand side.”

Most underrated: David Phelps
“The value David Phelps brings to this team is like that of Kyle Kendrick for Philadelphia and Craig Stammen for Washington. You can run him out to do just about anything. He commands four pitches. He’s not afraid of contact. He’ll take the ball. He’ll have a day when he’ll get his ass handed to him, but he’ll eat the innings for the team. He’ll go out and start. He’ll come out of the bullpen and pitch in the middle, and he always does a good job. He just does a very, very steady job for them. He can pitch.”


8. CLEVELAND INDIANS

The Case For :
In 2013, Terry Francona’s Tribe were a lot closer to taking the AL Central crown from the Tigers than you probably thought, as the Indians finished just one game behind Detroit. The impressively balanced lineup—no batter hit more than 22 home runs, and yet the Indians were fourth in the league in runs—could be even better this year, with the talented core of Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley entering their prime years. With another All-Star season from Kipnis—a darkhorse MVP candidate—and Santana moving to third base, as well as the addition of David Murphy to make a potentially potent rightfield platoon with Ryan Raburn will hit against lefties, the Indians’ offense will be dangerous again. Though there are questions in the rotation, the phenom with the 100 mph heater, Danny Salazar, has No. 1 stuff, and if he and Corey Kluber have big breakout seasons and the rotation gets something out of the enigmatic Trevor Bauer, you could see the Indians returning to the postseason … and overtaking the Tigers.

The Case Against :
With the Royals on the rise and the Tigers potentially improved, the Indians will have their hands full in a suddenly tough division. Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir were brilliant for them last year, and now both are gone, leaving Justin Masterson as the hurler who has to be The Man in a rotation that is short on front-of-the-rotation talent. The bullpen could be a problem as well. No one will mistake the departed Chris Perez for Mariano Rivera, but new closer John Axford has his own question marks.

X-Factor: Danny Salazar
His strikeout potential is as good as any young pitcher in the majors, but before anointing him the next Pedro, let’s remember that he’s logged just 52 career innings in the majors. There’s no doubt, though, that he has No. 1 stuff.

Number To Know: .425
That was Cleveland’s slugging percentage in 2013 against lefthanded hitters, a big improvement from its .352 mark in 2012, and the result of Francona’s effective use of the platoon advantage.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Michael Bourn
“He’s always worried me, and I never liked that signing for four years—he always swung and missed way too much for a guy without power. He wasn’t a spring chicken when they signed him, and without the speed, which clearly has diminished, what is Michael Bourn?”

Most underrated: Trevor Bauer
“I think Trevor Bauer can be an impact pitcher for them this year. He’s changed his motion a bit, simplified it, and the only thing holding him back is command of his fastball. He’s always been overthrowing it, and once he gets command of it, he’s a No. 2. He’s stubborn, set in his ways, and pissed off a lot of people in Arizona, but Cleveland lets him be what he wants to be, and that’s helped him.”


9. LOS ANGELES ANGELS

The Case For:
The 2013 Angels were built to win in the short term. They didn’t, but the good news is that the short term also included 2014. There is no reason to suspect that Mike Trout will be anything short of the best player alive once more, but you have to think that Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton won’t again combine to bat .253 with just 38 homers and 143 RBI. At 34 and 32, respectively, they’re aging, but they’re not yet old. Pujols, with his torn left plantar fascia healed, is particularly primed for a rejuvenation. Los Angeles ranked sixth in the AL in runs with two of its three central offensive players struggling, and the Angels should significantly improve on that with even average years from their trio of offensive centerpieces.

The Case Against:
Eleven pitchers started games for last year’s Angels. Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson started 57 of them and combined for an ERA of 3.34. The other nine had an ERA of 4.90. The 2013 Angels will begin with new pitchers filling the bottom three spots in the rotation, but there isn’t much to suggest that they will be significantly better. Garrett Richards, a swingman for Los Angeles last year, had a 4.10 ERA in 17 starts, and Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago, both acquired in the massive three-team trade that sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona, have 40 career big league starts between them. Richards, Skaggs and Santiago possess more upside than last year’sopening trio of Jason Vargas, Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson, but they will have to show quickly that opponents have to worry about matchups more than two days a week for Los Angeles to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

X-Factor: Kole Calhoun
In his first extended big league look, the 26-year-old put up an OPS of .808, better than anyone on the team except for Trout. Now he will be expected to be the everyday rightfielder and leadoff hitter, and he had better produce, as the barren farm system seems to have no good option – outside of, perhaps, C.J. Cron – who is ready to step in.

Number To Know: 273.49
That’s how many feet, according to the website baseballheatmaps.com, that Hamilton’s average fly balls carried last year, ranking him 209th in the majors, just behind noted Cardinals slugger Daniel Descalso. Hamilton ranked 23rd, at 299.81 feet, in 2012. Hamilton gained more than 25 pounds over the offseason in an attempt to regain the power that those numbers starkly show he lost. If he doesn’t, it is fair to wonder if his slugging days are over for good.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: David Freese
“He hasn’t moved well over there at third, swing’s kind of stiff. I expected to see a little more athletic guy. I know he had tremendous success in the World Series with the Cardinals in 2011, but I expected seeing a lot more, especially a guy coming to a new team with Pujols, who he had some familiarity with. Seemed like they were also counting on him to bring some of that World Series cachet with him, but he seems like a guy that’s pressing. I just think he had a great postseason. If you look at his numbers throughout his minor league years, he never was a guy who hit a lot of homers.”

Most underrated: Howie Kendrick
“I’ve always felt that this guy is one of the premier hitters in the American League. He’s a guy that can win a batting title, even though it’s so difficult for a right-handed hitter to do that. I don’t think people give him the notoriety he should get. And he and Erick Aybar have been a double play combination for the last eight years, which is very rare. He’s also developed into a solid second baseman. He’s become more than adequate defensively.”


11. SEATTLE MARINERS

The Case For:
Jack Zduriencik, the Mariners’ general manager, says that his club’s delicate wooing of Robinson Cano—which included the presentation of a birthday cake to his agent, Jay Z—played a central role in Cano’s coming to Seattle. The guess here is that Seattle’s offer of 10 years and $240 million outweighed even what was surely a thoughtful and delicious combination of flour, sugar and butter. Cano will bring a bat that has produced the major’s 11th-best OPS (.899) over the past five years to a park, Safeco Field, that with its fences moved in finally played fair last season (it was, in 2013, a neutral run-scoring environment, after formerly heavily favoring pitchers). But the Mariners also wanted Cano for his winning pedigree. He was always considered a supporting clubhouse player with the Yankees, but with Seattle, the 31-year-old will be the man tasked with getting his highly rated but disappointing younger lineup mates (like Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak) on track. So far, a scout told me, he has taken to the new role. “He’s in the middle of everything that’s going on, having conversations,” the scout said. “Seems like he’s out to prove something.” Of course, Cano is just one month in, with 115 or so more to go.

The Case Against :
For all their offseason changes, the Mariners remain unbalanced. Their everyday lineup features just two right-handed hitters, Corey Hart and Mike Zunino, and Hart – who will be expected to bat behind Cano – has looked awfully rusty in his attempt to return from knee surgery. The former Brewer’s first 31 spring at bats produced four hits and 16 strikeouts. The rotation is extremely top-heavy: Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are excellent, but behind them is a mix of guys who are unproven or injured or both, as is the case with top prospect Taijuan Walker. There is talent here, but can it all come together all at once?

X-Factor: Taijuan Walker
“This is a kid that’s a tremendous athlete,” said one scout this spring. “Throw Bob Gibson and Dwight Gooden together in a blender and you’d come up with Taijuan Walker.” The 21-year-old, who stands 6-foot-4-inches, is Baseball America’s No. 18 prospect this season and can throw 98 miles an hour. However, even the scout who envisions a Gibson-Gooden smoothie concedes that “he needs to command his secondary stuff better,” and could probably use a bit more time in Triple-A. He’ll get a little of that, mainly due to the shoulder inflammation that delayed his first spring start until March 22, but he’ll likely be in Seattle by May because the Mariners need him as soon as they can get him. If Walker can get healthy and mature quickly, then he’ll give his club a one-two-three rotational punch that might rival any in baseball, including those of the Tigers, Nationals and Cardinals.

Number To Know: -73.0
It wasn’t long ago that the Mariners had one of the most skilled collections of fielders the league has ever seen. In 2009, defensive wizards like Franklin Gutierrez, Adrian Beltre and Jack Wilson combined to give them an Ultimate Zone Rating of 86.0, meaning that its fielders saved the club from yielding 86 runs that league-average defenders would have permitted, the best perfomance the website FanGraphs has ever recorded. That year, the Mariners had their only winning season among the last six. In 2013, though, Seattle’s UZR dropped to a league-worst -73.0, a massive swing in a span of five seasons. The offseason’s additions of the defensively mediocre Cano and the outright poor Hart and Logan Morrison won’t improve matters, and will increase the burden on the Mariners’ starters.

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Michael Saunders
“Five years in the major leagues, fits the physical profile but has never put up numbers. Their weakness is their outfield right now, they don’t have one guy other than maybe Ackley who is guaranteed a start on Opening Day. You didn’t used to get to hit .236, as Saunders did last year, and stay in the big leagues. He’s not a centerfielder, and as a corner guy, he’ll tease you every now and then, but he doesn’t play with a hair on fire. He looks better in a uniform than he performs in one.”
Most underrated: Charlie Furbush
“Big lefty reliever that is just deadly on left-handers and has the ability to get out right-handers too. They’re not afraid to use him against multiple hitters, and he’s one of the filthiest left-on-left guys in the game. Three-quarter slot, long, gets on top of hitters so quickly and hitters don’t pick up the ball on him. Low 90s with a wipeout slider. He gets the ball up there on a hurry, and you don’t pick it up well.”

12. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

The Case For :
The Blue Jays were a popular pick to win the AL East a year ago after they won the winter. That didn’t work out largely due to injury and regression, but their 2014 team isn’t radically different. The biggest changes the Jays have made were to upgrade their catching situation by non-tendering out-machine J.P Arencibia and signing Dioner Navarro, and to let Josh Johnson, part of their big haul a year ago, leave as a free agent. The Jays almost can’t help but improve upon the 6.20 ERA Johnson put up in 16 starts or on the .227 on-base percentage Arencibia posted in 497 plate appearances. Meanwhile, healthy seasons from Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Morrow and Sergio Santos could have an even bigger impact, as could a rebound by knuckleballing ace R.A. Dickey.

The Case Against:
Most of what wrong for the Blue Jays last year was easily anticipated, meaning things didn’t so much go wrong as they went according to somewhat more realistic expectations. Now it’s Navarro who is unlikely to repeat a career year, and the team still hasn’t solved second base or its rotation, which a year ago was hoping to get a rebound from Ricky Romero in addition to strong seasons from Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Johnson, and Morrow. Johnson’s now gone, and Romero is as good as gone. That leaves Morrow, coming off a nerve issue in his forearm that limited him to ten starts last year; Drew Hutchison, coming back from August 2012 Tommy John surgery with just 11 major league starts under his belt; and J.A. Happ, at least for now, to back up the 39-year-old Dickey and 35-year-old Buehrle.

X-Factor: Health
The Blue Jays have been hit hard by injuries for two years in a row. This year, forty percent of their rotation is attempting to come back from major arm injuries (and it could be 60 percent if things go well for fellow Tommy John case Kyle Drabek in Triple-A to start the season, another big “if”). Bautista has averaged just 105 games over the last two years, and Reyes has played in more than 133 games just once in the last five years. Meanwhile, at third base, Brett Lawrie has yet to avoid the disabled list in a major league season. If the Blue Jays can stay healthy, they can tighten up an already strong division, but a season without injuries in Toronto seems unlikely.

Number To Know: 19
That’s how many seasons the Blue Jays have played since they last made the playoffs (not counting 1994). That’s the second-longest in baseball after the Royals’ 27-season drought and ties the length of the drought the Pirates broke last season (again, not counting 1994 in both cases).

Scout’s Takes
Most overrated: Melky Cabrera
“I think that could be a disaster. He could hit under .250 and very few home runs playing the natural way. He doesn’t look like the same player that he was. He still doesn’t have the same bat speed or anything else that we’ve seen in the past. I can see him eventually getting beaten out by somebody, I’m just not sure who.”

Most underrated: Edwin Encarnacion
“I’d say Edwin Encarnacion is an underrated player nationally, how good he is, the scariness of his presence. After wrist surgery, [he] looks solid. He should be fine. He and Bautista are as good as any two 3-4 right-handed power guys in the American League.”


13. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Key additions: 1B Jose Abreu, OF Adam Eaton, RP Scott Downs, 3B Matt Davidson, C Adrian Nieto, SP Felipe Paulino
Key losses: SP Hector Santiago, closer Addison Reed, SP Gavin Floyd

It is likely that the White Sox bottomed out in 2013. Their 99-loss season was pretty much a start-to-finish disaster. This season will be better, not dramatically better, but there will be more reasons to smile on Chicago's south side.
This is the season that White Sox fans get to watch promising young players such as Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson and highly touted Cuban import Jose Abreu.
Chris Sale is worth watching when he takes the mound once every five days. Jose Quintana is coming into his own as well. Can Felipe Paulino bounce back from Tommy John surgery? There are good reasons for fans to come out and watch the White Sox. Unfortunately, wins aren't one of them.

14. MINNESOTA TWINS

The Case For:
Yes, we know the future is bright. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are coming (though Tommy John surgery will delay Sano’s arrival). But until they get here? There’s no doubt that the rotation in Minnesota is improved. General manager Terry Ryan spent $73 million on Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to reverse the fortunes of a staff that ranked last in the league with a 5.26 ERA. There’s upside with Nolasco, as he showed flashes of top of the rotation stuff last year with the Marlins before being dealt to the Dodgers. If Joe Mauer rediscovers his power with his move to first base, and if Oswaldo Arcia blooms into one of the better young hitters in the game, then, yes, maybe the Twins will actually be watchable before the curtain rises on the Buxton & Sano Era.
The Case Against:
Unless you think Jason Kubel and Kurt Suzuki are saviors, the Twins did little to improve an offense that ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored and 23rd in slugging. The revamped rotation might be better, but don’t expect any miracles. Phil Hughes was a better pitcher away from Yankee Stadium, but he’s best fit for a relief role. Mike Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery last year and posted a 5.19 ERA. And if the offense is as bad as it was last year, it won’t matter much if the pitching isn’t any better. Did we mention that the future is bright?
X-Factor: Early-season schedule:
The Twins will have to overcome a treacherous early slate of games: 31 of their first 40 games are against teams who had a .500 record or better in 2013.
Number To Know: 477:
Total number of strikeouts by Twins starting pitchers last year. No other team in the majors had fewer than 590.

Scout’s Takes:
Most overrated: Josh Willingham
“This is largely a young team, so perhaps it’s unfair to focus on the few veterans. I know that Willingham has been hurt, but right now he’s not running well, he can’t throw and is a below-average outfielder. He’s just not showing offense he once did, and given that contract, he stands out as overrated.”

Most underrated: Josmil Pinto
“He’s going to give them a lot more offense than people think—a .280 hitter with 20-homer potential, that’s so valuable at that position, and for this team. But they signed Suzuki, and they’re calling him the starter. I don’t think Pinto is Mauer behind the plate, he’s still working on his defense, but his offense is so valuable that he should be an everyday guy for them.”                                       


 15. HOUSTON ASTROS 

Key additions: OF Dexter Fowler, 1B/OF Jesus Guzman, SP Scott Feldman, RP Jesse Crain, SP Jerome Williams, RP Chad Qualls
Key lossees: SP Erick Bedard, SP Jordan Lyles, OF Brandon Barnes.

Outlook :The 2014 Astros aren't about who the team lost or added over the offseason. Expect Feldman and Fowler to both contribute and Crain and Qualls will both see plenty of time out of the bullpen.
Those expected contributions aside, the 2014 Astros will be all about their young players, and their up-and-coming minor league prospects.
Houston already has a core of young talented major leaguers. Catcher Jason Castro and second baseman Jose Altuve both have very good careers in front of them.
Starting pitcher Jarred Cosart is another promising young major leaguer. The real high-ceiling guys have yet to make the big leagues.
Outfielder George Springer, first baseman Jonathan Singleton, starting pitcher Mark Appel and shortstop Carlos Correa have Astros fans very optimistic about the team's longterm future.
That future isn't in 2014 though.
The Astros won't lose 100 games again, but they're not a .500 team. When you lose 111 games, even a 15-game improvement still equates to a 96-loss season. That's about where the Astros will finish.